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From Molecular Profiling to Predictive Algorithms: A Conceptual Machine-Learning Framework for Mechanism-Informed Therapy Selection in Multidrug-Resistant Cancer

Abstract

Background. Oncology practice largely selects therapy according to histological classification and population-level response rates rather than the molecular behaviour of an individual tumour. Two convergent resistance mechanisms - dysregulated proliferative signalling (MAPK, PI3K/AKT/mTOR) and evasion of intrinsic apoptosis (BCL-2 family dysregulation) - reinforce one another at the protein level, allowing tumours to circumvent single-pathway interventions.

 

Proposal. We set out a conceptual machine-learning framework that treats an individual’s proliferative-signalling and apoptosis-resistance status as continuously updated multivariate inputs rather than static single-threshold biomarkers. We specify the framework’s prediction targets, its representation of irregularly sampled longitudinal data, candidate model classes, indicative data requirements, and - for the therapy-recommendation tasks - the causal-inference constraints that distinguish recommending a treatment from predicting an outcome.

 

Precedent and limits. We review precedent for individual components: machine-learning-guided frontline tyrosine-kinase-inhibitor selection in chronic myeloid leukaemia, transcriptomic-signature-guided adjuvant chemotherapy in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, multi-omic prediction of neoadjuvant response in breast cancer, functional measurement of apoptotic priming by dynamic BH3 profiling, and circulating-tumour-DNA-guided treatment adaptation. To our knowledge, no existing tool integrates proliferative-signalling and apoptosis-resistance status while re-scoring longitudinally across a treatment course. We also examine the mixed interventional record of molecularly guided treatment-assignment trials and state what would need to differ here. We identify an instrumentation gap that constrains the proposal: of the required inputs, only circulating tumour DNA is routinely measurable in series, so the framework is at present longitudinal in one axis and static in the other.

 

Conclusion. Formalising mechanism-based diagnostics as a continuously updating computational system offers a route toward individualised therapy selection, but its feasibility is contingent on assay development, staged prospective validation, and safety evaluation that the field has not yet undertaken.

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